|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Hi Peter,
Your Elliott count and and assessment looks good to me. Breadth was
extemely negative on Friday, with a net negative 2226 issues. This is
typical third wave type of momentum. Readings in this area over the last
couple of years have been within a percent or two of important lows. We may
start lower early Monday to complete a third down and then begin a strong
rally to begin a fourth.
Also, I believe we are in the area John Boggio has targeted for the end of
a symmetrical wave pattern in his work.
Regards,
Tom Alexander
----------
> From: PJLaird@xxxxxxx
> To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: Re: MKT - Elliott follow up
> Date: Saturday, August 16, 1997 1:26 PM
>
> detomps@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
> In a message dated 97-08-16 09:55:38 EDT, you write:
>
> << I would like to get more EW on since, I like other views..... I
> personally like chat and chart like this example. >>
>
> Good. Attached is a "follow up" to the Elliott chart of yesterday.
>
> The scenario of an ABC suggested yesterday (letters now bracketed) was
most
> probably incorrect. We broke below the 7800 level (trash can time), and
> confirmed the scenario as faulty as the white trendline was broken. The
> length of bracketed (C) is now greater than 2.618 of A, and thereby all
but
> eliminating that count as feasible in my view. The upper trendline was
never
> approached, preventing any entry to the upside, and the break of 7800
forced
> me to cash.
>
> The descent from 8/7 has now been labeled in white with the probable
> scenarios. I've found price action that remains between parallel lines,
is
> almost always corrective. If we stay between those red channel lines,
then
> the corrective ABC in white is most likely correct. This implies a
"zigzag"
> from 8/7, will be confirmed by staying above the lower red line, and
will
> complete with a good thrust through the upper red trendline running from
8/7
> to the open on 8/15. If we drop quickly on Monday, through the lower
line,
> then the impulse scenario, 1,2,3 etc. gains in probability.
>
> My "guess" is that we will hold support somewhere in the area we are in
now
> (give or take 75 to 100 points). Not shown as a trendline, but the apex
of
> the triangle back on 7/2 should have some influence also. A 1.618
extension
> of the 8/7 - 8/8 drop, moved to the 8/12 high gives 7600 as possible
support.
> This is also the low of that Dow triangle back in late June. From the
6/4
> low on the S&P 500, we have retraced 50%, and secondary trend following
> indicators like TRIN (Arms) RSI and Stochastic on the Dow are well into
> oversold. I know the last three carry little weight, but they always
make me
> feel good when I need them to confirm a point of view.
>
> So, my guess is 7600 stands a good chance of being a bottom, but I'm a
bad
> guesser. Critical points for market action from me are 7600 on the
downside,
> and a "good" break of that descending upper red trendline for upside
entry.
>
> Peter
>
|