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Cleaning out my files, I found an overlooked old mail, regarding
Elliot waves and time. Taking the very long term pictures
aside, there is a Fibonacci time technique that is
effective to antcipate the end of a wave 4 on more
manageable time frames. This is useful
since even if in a price target zone, wave 4's are notoriously
difficult to gauge.
1) Measure the time distance between peak of wave 1 and peak of wave
3
2) Multiply this distance by 1.38 and 1.62 to get 2 new time values.
3)Extend these 2 time periods from the bottom of wave 2.
You'll find that majority of wave 4's will end between this time
window.
Alec.
> I have a question for all of the Elliott afficiandos out there. :)
>
> I've been reading 2 books on Elliott Wave: Elliott Wave Explained, by
> Robert Beckman, and Elliott Wave Principle, by Robert Prechter. They
> disagree on a very important point: the time necessary for corrective
> waves to form.
>
> Beckman says that the time required to correct an impulse move should be
> in a realistic proportion to the overall time frame of the impulse.
> IOW, if an impulse move lasts N amount of time, the corrective sequence
> that follows should last somewhere in the order of N x .382 to N x .618.
>
> Prechter says that this is not necessary. From what I can infer from
> his writing and his counts, he thinks that if a corrective move is sharp
> and deep enough, it can correct for an impulse move in a fraction of the
> time it took for the impulse to develop. Two examples of Prechter's
> counts in which he does this are the '29 to '32 bear market, which he
> says corrects all of Supercycle wave 3 (1857-1929), and the 1987 crash,
> which he says corrects all of Primary wave 3 (1984-1987).
>
> Obviously, this issue is a key one in trying to determine where the heck
> we are in a long-term Elliott framework.
>
> What do the Elliott experts on RealTraders think? :)
>
> Chris
>
>
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