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Thought I'd bring this trade to a close....we have reached the targets
mentioned in the second post....a total retracement of the last rally...it was
an excellent trade....gee...wouldn't it be nice if they all worked out like
this!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Post from 6/24/97>>>>>>>
<Follow up on Fridays' post(see below)
What can we expect next for July Copper?????? Last rally was 102.4-123.10
or 20.70...50% retracement lends support @ 112.75...618% retracement
lends support @ 110.30...if 110.30 gives way, we can then look for a total
retracement to 102.40, but first some sort of bounce over the next few days is
likely, also, same analysis that indicated a decline is still in force...
Hope this helps...Tom Stein comfut@xxxxxxx
.............................post from Friday
6/20/97....................................
<Thought I'd outline a few parameters that I use to formulate longer term
trading ideas in the commodity markets...this particular one is for copper.
1)We have just retraced approx. .618% of the decline from the 145 area to
the 87 area
2)The spread between the front month(July) and the next month(Sept) has been
continually declining while the front month was making new highs...this
is called a divergence and also, indicates the commercials are in no panic
situation as far as supplies.
3)The commercials are heavily short...small traders are heavily long(guess who
will be correct in the long run)
4)Bullish Consensus reports 82% bulls (not extreme, but bullish consensus
numbers have started to drop as prices went to new highs...another
divergence indicating that we already saw the extreme in optimisim)
5)Finally, after prices have hung around the top for a day or two they closed
on their low.
6)We have some indications the copper rally is over...............
No black boxes...musical notes....no venus and mars....just a little
old fashion "use your brain" stuff....Will it work???? Sometimes...as many
have already posted...the entrys easy...it's the money management and the exit
that will determine whether you can make money at this game or not.
Hope this helps....Tom Stein comfut@xxxxxxx>
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