Re[2]: puzzling probability and roulette a la Mark Brown

[Ernie Bonugli <ebonugli@xxxxxxxx>]

Monday, December 03, 2001, 12:20:03 PM, you wrote:

mwan> .....Need to de-trend
mwan> and examine the cyclic components to determine if it's signal or actually 
mwan> noise.


I struggle with this issue,  That is, should I try to out guess my system or
not?  Do I know better than what the system is telling me, (the
system that I spent many many man-hours developing)?!?

I use a breakout method,  and sometimes there is a retraction once the
break out which signals you to enter the market.  Other times there is
no retracement.  I want to believe that the answer is to follow  the system, take the losses
with the wins.

I have been thinking about passing the request to a smaller interval
bar system and let it make the final decision.  But I have not fully
rationalize this scheme either.

Any ideas?  Average into the position?


-- 
Best regards,
 Ernie                            mailto:ebonugli@xxxxxxxx