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This is only possible through a technique called "trade profiling".
Otherwise, every trade for a given system has the same probability of
success/failure.
Phil Lane was RIGHT. If you knew AHEAD OF TIME, which signals were more
profitable than others, then skip the "others" and load-the-boat on the
"sure" winners. The problem is, the "sure" winners themselves have only a
"probability" of winning associated with them.
The above requires voluminous back-testing and much multiple-regression
analysis.....AND
better know your statistics before tackling it.
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Cab Vinton [mailto:cvinton@xxxxxxxxxxx]
> Sent: Sunday, May 21, 2000 10:32 AM
> To: L_Omega
> Subject: RE: Tharp's Expectancy
>
>
>
> > 2) It is not possible to know which trades have a higher
> > probability of winning than others.
> >
> > What can I say? My own backtesting says very differently.
>
> I would be very interested to learn how you determine the probability
> of a particular trade being successful ahead of time. What kind of
> backtesting will tell you this?
>
> Cheers,
>
> Cab Vinton
>
>
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