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Well, well. I'm afraid it's come to this.
Just to give you all an update on the Fuzzy project I've been working on
here.
To refresh memories, I picked up a $2300 NeuralFuzzy package and intended to
put my five homespun S&P indicators into it as a trading assistant to help
take the mental strain off.
Well.... after about 125 hours of serious work the best I can do is get a
very retarded trading assistant working. It seems that there is so much
noise in the normal market data and indicators that the network is easily
confused.
I am beginning to see that the human mind is by far the best network for
recognizing patterns. It is quite easy to integrate the whole picture and
discount the noise with the brain, but the software programming is really a
cumbersome and endless rulemaking process that is sure to be inferior.
I also tried the other normal neural net optimization stuff...all the MA,
RSI, etc. horseshit.... and it's no better than TS opto routines. I see why
I gave up on this in '94, Tudor gave up on it as well as others. I just had
to try again.
It's such a relief now to trade with my old method and real time indicators
instead of babying and second guessing this thing. But I kinda knew this
would be the result anyway, didn't I ? Learned a great deal and now have
links to Excel, HashNumbs, etc. as a result.
Just 'cuz I decided it's not for me doesn't mean these things can't work
well in other areas of science. I just think the brain is a much better tool
when there is so much market data noise to filter out.
Well, no loss. The company has agreed to take it back for a full refund. I
may be looking to roll the $ into some other worthless software like an
Elliot counter, etc...who knows? Always looking for new sucker software.
<g>
Later,
Tom Cathey
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