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Although I am not Mormon (LDS), my wife's realtives (who are) sent this to
her. Considering the conservative background of this group & its penchant
for preparedness I thought our group might find its observations on Y2K of
value:
*****
I thought people might be interested in what Senator Bennett said about
the year 2,000 computer problem. He spoke at a McLean Stake Fireside in
October. The follow are notes taken at the fireside:
Notes taken by Steve Nichols, a member of the Arlington Ward, McLean,
Virginia Stake in October 1998.
On Sunday, our stake had a family preparedness fireside on the year 2000
(Y2K). The speaker was Senator Bennett of Utah who is the chairman of
the Senate Committee on Y2K. I went to the fireside thinking that it
would be interesting, but also thinking that Y2K was not a big deal.
Senator Bennett convinced me otherwise.
The Y2K problem will be an unbelievably widespread problem that we each
need to start preparing for right now. Anything that is controlled by a
computer or a computer chip may malfunction in dangerous and
unpredictable ways at the beginning of the year 2000. Unfortunately,
everything is controlled by a computer these days. To illustrate the
problem, Senator Bennett told the following stories:
To test a water treatment plant, the plant management rolled the
clocks ahead to 2000 to see how the computer systems of the plant would
react. The computer responded by immediately dumping all the chemicals
it had into the water supply instead of slowing dispensing the chemicals
as it was supposed to do. The water was then poison and unusable.
At a General Motors factory, the management also rolled the clocks ahead
to see what would happen. The result was that none of the robots on the
assembly line would work. The factory was useless. Moreover, when the
inspectors tried to leave, the security system refused to let them out of
the building.
Elevators have to be inspected regularly by law. When the year
2000 hits, elevators may think they have not been inspected for 99 years.
When an inspection is missed, most elevators are programmed to go
immediately to the basement and close their doors until the inspector
comes. Don't get in an elevator New Year's Eve 1999.
In January 2000, Senator Bennett does not think that the national power
grid will fail, but thinks that some areas will inevitably experience
extended brown and black-cuts. Supplies of natural gas and telephone .
communications could also be interrupted. Long distance telephone
communications will almost certainly be interrupted.
The FAA has been unable to guarantee that its airtraffic control system
will not fail in January 2000. This may reduce domestic flight by 40%
and make it necessary to ration air travel. International travel will be
worse.
The Federal Reserve thinks that it will be able to continue to clear
checks and other bank transactions for the country, but each individual
bank or brokerage may be unable to continue to do business. Chairman
Greenspan informed Senator Bennett that the Fed is printing an extra ten
billion in paper money to handle the run on the banks that is expected as
people convert their money into cash before Y2K.
Senator Bennett told of warning one of his daughters about these
problems. His daughter asked if he has spoken to the Church. He thought
that was good idea, so he contacted an employee at Church headquarters
responsible for worrying about these kinds of problems. That employee
assured Senator Bennett that the Church has, or is, upgrading all of its
computer systems to deal with the problem.
Senator Bennett then asked if he could question this Church employee.
The senator wanted to know how the Church is going to contact missions,
temples and members around the world when the international and national
phone systems won't work; how the Church is going to transfer funds
around the world with the banking systems not working; how the Church
will respond to members who are out of work for three months or more
because the equipment at the factory or office where they are employed is
malfunctioning. The Church employee had to admit that while the Church
has fixed its own systems, they had never considered how they would be
affected by other systems that had not been fixed.
Senator Bennett was then invited to a meeting with the First Presidency,
Council of the Twelve, Presiding Bishopric, etc. to brief them on the Y2K
problem. Senator Bennett told the Brethren that he had been asked by
someone in government when the Mormons were going to start warning their
people to get ready for the year 2000. President Faust immediately
responded, "We've been warning them for thirty years."
A major complication of the Y2K problem is that it will be a problem
world-wide. While all the problems I have described above will happen in
the U.S., we will be relatively well off. Senator Bennett said only five
countries in the world including the U.S. are doing anything significant
to address the Y2K problem (Japan is NOT one of the five. The five are
the U.S., Canada, Great Britain, Singapore and one other).
This will cause huge economic upheaval in many countries. Senator
Bennett was informed that the New York Stock Exchange has been refitting
and testing its computers and thinks it will be able to continue trading
in the year 2000. However, the Senator expects most exchanges in foreign
countries to be shut down. For this reason, he cautioned us about
investing in foreign stocks. It is anticipated that the economies of
some countries will be devastated for decades by the Y2K problem. This
anticipated turmoil around the globe will inevitably cause a deep
recession, at least, in the United States.
You may wonder why we don't just fix this problem before it's too late.
The answer is, it isn't possible. Senator Bennett has been informed that
there are 160 billion lines of computer code around the world that have
the Y2K problem. For every four lines that are fixed another error in
the program is created. Therefore, everything has to be fixed, tested
and then re-fixed. There simply are not enough skilled people or time
left to do the job. Moreover, that does not include checking all the
embedded computer chips that run everything from your car's transmission
to your thermostat to your elevators to your children's toys.
Senator Bennett illustrated the cause of the Y2K problem with the
following Allegory. A new wife was making a ham for her new husband.
She cut off both ends. When the husband asked why, she replied that it
makes the ham taste better. "Who told you that?"' he asked. "My mother,"
she replied. The husband went to his mother-in-law and asked if she cut
off the ends of ham. She replied that she did. When he asked why, she
replied that it made the ham taste better. When asked who had told her
that, she indicated that she had learned it from her mother. The husband
then went to his wife's grandmother and asked if she cut the ends off a
ham before cooking it. She said she did. When he asked why, she replied
that it was just habit, when she was young, the family oven was too small
for a whole ham, so they cut the ends off to make it fit.
When computers were first being developed, they were not powerful enough
to easily process dates with a four digit year. Early programmers used a
two-digit year and saved millions of dollars. The early programmers,
working in the '60s assumed that their programs would be obsolete by the
year 2000 and that later programmers would use four digit years. The new
programmers learned from copying the old programmers, and nobody ever
started using four-digit years.
Anyway, that's the problem, the question is what should you do about it.
Here are Senator Bennett's suggestions.
(1) Check with all your banks, brokerages, and other financial
institutions as to their preparedness for the year 2000. If they can't
assure you that they will be able to continue to do business as usual,
move your assets to a place that can.
(2) Keep hard copies of your financial records and get up-to-date
hard copies near the end of December 1999.
(3) Have everything you need on hand for at least three months by
December 1999 (food, water and fuel (January is cold)).
(4) Expect a recession in 2000 and plan your finances
accordingly. Keep some cash on hand.
Needless to say, after listening to Senator Bennett we are very concerned
and are trying to get better prepared for this-crisis. We hope this
warning may help you do the same.
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