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greene@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx wrote:
>
> Since you're interested in bonds - I wonder what your take is on the 30 year
> these days? I follow daily charts of the continuous contract - and my charts
> show that we're just about at the top of the down channel that started a month or
> so ago (we poked through the top a little yesterday). There seems to be a lot of
> resistance at the top of that channel - or perhaps traders are just being
> cautious in anticipation of Thursday's CPI. I don't much like buying cash bonds
> at these interest rate levels - but I'll buy a few if we break out of the down
> channel. Robyn
Robyn:
I hate to fight the trend, even though I see the channel you speak of.
I was long coming into today, but cautiously short by mid-day after
the disappointing way the bond held up at its highs. When we got the
bad close, I thought we might get a nice little sell-off and so I went
home short both bonds and tens, but I put profit orders in electronic
trading and while answering email, I see I am long at 120 28 versus
the bond. I would feel much better if we made a run through today's
highs. But on the whole, I like them. I still think we're headed to
new highs [though one thing I hate doing is forecasting. Every time I
*think* I know where something is going, I usually let my discipline
get a touch sloppy...].
Best of luck in the markets.
Tim
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