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Andy wrote:
>
> In reply, I think that anyone who survives or thrive trading between Jan,
> 1994-Dec 1994
> and Aug,1997-Jan1998 will survive or thrive during down periods. IMO, these
> periods can be consider "bear" market conditions in a secular bull market.
> Also, if you look on the daily charts and compare the 2 periods, you can
> see a similar pattern bewtween the 2. Please keep in mind that an interest
> rate hike in Jan 1994 and the asian crisis "knock" the bull from its run
> for these periods of time.
>
Andy:
I would disagree. I am not speaking of a brief correction in a bull
market. I am speaking of a significant bear market. Stocks in the US
have not had a significant bear market while I have been trading[1980
to the present]. I mean a long down-trend. And rate hikes...well, I
was a researcher for a large commodity trader while in college. That's
when interest rates were on their way up to 21+ percent. By a
long-term trend, I don't mean a rate hike here or there...I mean a
long-term trend[I did begin the discussion on the bond markets by
saying its trend was not as clear as the stock market's trend over the
past 18+ years].
> ----------
> >So many of our tendencies as traders are learned early
> > in our career [hence the old saying you can't teach old dogs...] and
> > so I always scratch my head when people that have been trading for two
> > or three years talk about how 'they are making tons of money and can
> > make money in any market conditions.' Some of them even talk about how
> > they survived this crash or that crash. I wonder, silently, to myself,
> > what they will do when these markets turn and become down-trending
> > trading markets, which can be entirely different animals.
> >
> > Tim Morge
> >
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