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I trade using a very similar expert system every day of the week. I
have tuned up my system for the type of things I trade, and I've
refined the formulas. For example, I can add code that uses a variety
of range spreads to determine the probablity of the current signal
being profitable.
The only problem with Peak and Trough bars on intraday charts is the
lag they can create. It's just part of the slippage before you can
get into and out of trades. When I trade 30 and 60 minute screens, I
have a 5 and 15 minute chart open at the same time with set of
indicators I've developed from Clayburg's book. When I get a buy on
those indicators, it's ahead of the expert siganl. If I like what I
see I buy before the expert signal and watch for confirmation from
the expert. If I don't like the indicators, I ignore the signal.
The moving averages also tell you a lot about what's going on.
Experienced traders can beat most cycle traders just by using two
moving averages. Simple is the best, when you can get it.
You will also notice that the system does not depend solely on the
Peak and Trough bars. I don't like the zigzag and I don't use it. Too
many people think the zigzag is projecting future prices.
Instead of critiqing the "so called" expert system, write one of your
own that's more efficient and produces better results. That will
prove your point.
I have an expert system for trading mutual funds that was written
with Peak and Trough bar functions that frankly is best Mutual Fund
trading system I've ever seen, and I've looked at all of them I can
find. I like trading mutual funds the best. But I make more money
positon and day trading when the market is non-trending. I really
enjoy the trending phases because the mutual funds are great.
I guess that's why I like cyclical bear markets.
You're right though, no system is truly an expert. No matter what you
trade with, judgement, intuition, experience and management of the
trades is what makes you money. They don't sell that on infomecials
at night.
JO
--- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Joe J." <jojab@xxxx> wrote:
> Before you get too excited about this so-called "Expert" read the
MS files on Peak, Trough and Zigzag. I'm not sure if JO is joking
around with the group or not with this but in taking one look at the
attached chart from Dominick, you had to begin to wonder about just
where these signals were coming from. Ah, if only we could all see
beyond the hard-right edge!
>
> Good Trading,
>
> Joe J.
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Dominick [mailto:Dom2000@x...]
> Sent: Sun 7/13/2003 1:20 PM
> To: equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Cc:
> Subject: [EquisMetaStock Group] SPY
>
> Here is a daily chart of SPY using JO's "Free Expert" in MS version
7.2
> EOD . Could some one post their 30 minute result.
>
> TIA,
>
> Dominick
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