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If you subtract for the purposeful destruction in purchasing power of the
dollar (often misnamed inflation), the DOW average is not still not equal
to the 1929 high, at 5 1/4%.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Lionel Issen" <lissen@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, July 13, 2001 10:02 PM
Subject: Re: Naz 100 futures buy and hold system
> Matt:
> You are correct.
> After the 1929 crash it took 20 years for the Dow to reach the levels or
> 1929.
> Lionel Issen
> lissen@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Yarroll" <komin@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Friday, July 13, 2001 6:14 AM
> Subject: RE: Naz 100 futures buy and hold system
>
>
> > Matt,
> >
> > I think this idea goes against the grain of all TA...
> >
> > Have a look at Nikkei index futures. Nikkei has had a freefall back in
> 1990
> > and it never went back. I was listening to CNBC the other day... they
were
> > saying Japan is _on the verge_ (!!!) of recession and stock could NOW
> start
> > to be going down!
> >
> > Would you be ready to hold on to your strategy for more than 10 years,
and
> > that without ANY guarantee it will ever make any profit? (There is no
such
> > guarantee. Future will not be the same. Hell... 10 years from now there
> even
> > can be NO markets as we know now).
> >
> > Buy&Hold is just another way to play Russian roulette. Don't fall for
it.
> > (JMHO)
> >
> > All the best
> > Yarroll
> >
> >
> > >
> > > I wonder if anyone has any thoughts on the following system.
> > > Assuming one has the necessary capitalization and patience, would it
> work?
> > >
> > > Rules
> > >
> > > 1. Go long only.
> > > 2. Buy the front month Naz emini at 1800, 1700, 1600, 1500, 1400,
> > > etc. all the way down or all the way
> > > up!
> > > 3. Sell each contract only when it reaches a 100 point profit.
> > > 4. Rollover if necessary.
> > >
> > > Obviously if one had begun this strategy when the Naz was at 4000
> > > or 5000, one would have a lot of
> > > still open positions.
> > > But given where we are now, doesn't the risk/reward seem reasonable?
> > >
> > > I seem to remember that a similar strategy was pursued with gold
> > > and silver futures in the 1970's.
> > >
> > > Buying and holding the Naz emini has the advantages of
> > > diversification and leverage. I know a lot of
> > > people
> > > who are playing a similar game with the QQQ's, but they don't
> > > have quite the leverage.
> > >
> > > If the long, long term trend is NOT up, is this strategy still viable?
> > >
> > > Do you think that slippage from rollover's will have too great an
> impact?
> > >
> > > Best regards,
> > > Matthew Kratter
> > >
> >
> >
>
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