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Dear Guy,
What you send is always interesting but I would like to point to you one
point:
Systems can brake down when the basic market factors changes. It is stating
the obvious but I had to say that to you because I firmly believe that the
current situation is an "unwinding" of the great bull market of the 90's.
The fury of enthusiasm about technology has moved to a realization that it
is not quite "stratospheric" in terms of revenues. Hence the bear market.
I hope that I am wrong, because the real money is always done in a good
trending bull market.
Moshe Shalom
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On
Behalf Of Guy Tann
Sent: Tuesday, October 17, 2000 6:18 PM
To: Metastock User Group
Subject: Decisions
List,
Well, we're back from Disneyland and my better half and my 10 year old going
on every roller coaster there (I don't do roller coasters or any rides that
have a warning for people with bad hearts, backs and necks). :)
Well, it's decision time. As I mentioned before, we are running two systems
(I'm not sure if that's the right word). The first system (SP39) is the one
we've used for the past 15 years and runs 3 out of 4 trades correct for that
period. The latest signal takes one of the components of the previous
system and adds more weight to it (H700).
Anyway, the H700 signal gave us a buy signal about a week ago (I'd have to
check the date) while SP39 has been on a losing long trade (one of those 25%
losers unfortunately). The SP39 signaled a sell for this morning (at the
open or by 7:30AM PDT). Now, the H700 has big drawdowns, so we had to make
a decision here. I decided to lighten up on my long positions (basically
bail out of most of them and go to the sideline) hoping I'd be able to
re-instate these positions at a lower price.
That's one of the problems using two signals. The SP39 is our old standby
and has treated us kindly for over 15 years. H700 is a fairly new signal
that we have been using for about a year or two as a component of SP39. In
the last 3 years, H700 has been running (on paper) over 90% correct, so we
thought that we would make some trades based upon it. Now, when they're
both pointing in the same direction, everything is great. Today, we had to
make a decision as to how to manage our positions.
Anyway, that's where we're at and I have over 300 emails to wade through,
bills to pay and a lunch to schedule.
Regards to all.
Guy
Politicians and diapers have one thing in common. They should both be
changed regularly and for the same reason.
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