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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Guy,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2> I agree with you when you said:
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2> "<EM>It’s too easy for the players to keep
the run going a little further than necessary in order to trigger signals for
various charting systems."</EM></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2> I have come to rely on the false signals as
much as the true signals.......what do I mean by this?</FONT><FONT
face=Arial size=2> I believe these levels still have
great </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>significance......If the market fails
to validate a signal at the breaking of a support level (such as a neck
line) then immediately reverse</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>position and go long! These false signals can be
very reliable.</FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2> I am also experimenting with
a time/price confirmation method that involves</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>either a close to remain below/above the
signal</FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2> for 3 consecutive days OR the
price to move greater than the Average True Range below/above</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>the signal, but this is still under observation and
I haven't validated if this is beneficial yet.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2> As for this particular chart,</FONT><FONT
face=Arial size=2> my short term momentum is close to the oversold area, so we
could see a move up, but if the close remains below</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>this neck line through next week, (especially if
the price closes 25+ points lower on Monday), then I would start looking at this
neck-line</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>as resistance. This is all the "classic" John
Murphy trend - following style..........but Guy, I have been watching you
post your "Contrarian" trades </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>for </FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>several years
with great interest. I started messing around with some code many months back,
wanting to develop an overbought/oversold</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>system......but just couldn't seem to get anywhere.
Recently I have made a little progress in this direction (see chart below) and I
am slowly</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>gaining confidence and familiarity with it. It sure
is hard to adjust to a "Contrarian" mind-set, when your used to waiting for
confirmation of</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>the trend!! This may all seem like a baby step
compared to your method...but this is a BIG LEAP for some one who usually just
follows</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>the crowd (trend following) instead of stepping out
in the lead (contrarian)..........(why do I feel like I am stepping out in front
of a bus?)<g>.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>If you will noticed, there are price bands
based on daily, weekly and monthly periods. I view the bands similar to
support and resistance, </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>in that if the price is outside of the bands I will
wait until it moves inside before taking a position (notice blue arrows....I
still need some confirmation)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I also use short and long term momentum in these
decisions. The pink arrows are signals from a true contrarian system, I use them
to</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>give early warnings on my weekly bands. I placed
the yellow arrow on the 13th marking a "paper trade", and I have a price target
around the</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>1230-1240 range based on the weekly and monthly
band. It seems the best signals come when the price is near two or more
time frames.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2> </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2> Guy, thanks for your comments, I always look
forward to your post.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2> Adam</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><IMG align=baseline alt="" border=0 hspace=0
src="cid:005c01bf17f5$e8154e40$43641ece@xxxxxxxxx";></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----
<DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A
href="mailto:grt@xxxxxxxxxxxx"; title=grt@xxxxxxxxxxxx>Guy Tann</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Friday, October 15, 1999 10:55 PM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> RE: S&P500</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV class=Section1>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle15><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">Adam<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle15><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle15><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">This is
one of the reasons we don’t rely on charts, etc.<SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>It’s too easy for the players to keep
the run going a little further than necessary in order to trigger signals for
various charting systems.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle15><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle15><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">Anyway,
I haven’t completed my calculations yet, but it’s possible we might have a buy
signal for Monday morning.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>Like I
said, I won’t know until I complete my calculations, but we’ll
see.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle15><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle15><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">Glad we
didn’t have that big spike down on Thursday (enough to get me to take my profits
and hope for a key reversal), so we kept all of our
shorts.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle15><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle15><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">We had
an Intermediate Term Buy Signal as of 10/13/99 and are waiting for the
confirmation of our Short Term Buy Signal.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle15><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle15><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">It’s
possible that we might have some margin calls this weekend due to the S&P
activity, which would mean a negative opening on Monday.<SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>If you had some big cajones, that might
be the time to go long.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle15><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle15><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoAutoSig><!--[if supportFields]><span class=EmailStyle15><font
size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Arial'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span><span
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>AUTOTEXTLIST \s "E-mail
Signature" <span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span></font></span><![endif]--><FONT
color=navy><SPAN style="COLOR: navy">Regards,</SPAN></FONT><FONT
color=navy><SPAN
style="COLOR: navy; mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoAutoSig><FONT color=navy face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN
style="COLOR: navy; FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]></SPAN></FONT><FONT
color=navy><SPAN
style="COLOR: navy; mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoAutoSig><FONT color=navy face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN
style="COLOR: navy; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Guy </SPAN></FONT><FONT color=navy><SPAN
style="COLOR: navy; mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoAutoSig><FONT color=navy face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN
style="COLOR: navy; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Fax (630) 604-1589</SPAN></FONT><FONT
color=navy><SPAN
style="COLOR: navy; mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><!--[if supportFields]><span class=EmailStyle15><font
size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Arial'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span></font></span><![endif]--><SPAN
class=EmailStyle15><FONT color=navy face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT color=black face=Tahoma
size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">-----Original
Message-----<BR><B><SPAN style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">From:</SPAN></B>
owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]<B><SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">On Behalf Of </SPAN></B>vonhef<BR><B><SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Sent:</SPAN></B> Friday, October 15, 1999 3:25
PM<BR><B><SPAN style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">To:</SPAN></B> MetaStock<BR><B><SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Subject:</SPAN></B> S&P500</SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT color=black face=Arial
size=2><SPAN style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Well, as
most of you have probably noticed, the S&P 500 has dropped below the
neck-line.</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=black><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT color=black face=Arial
size=2><SPAN style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">In the
classic technical analysis this is a very bearish signal. My long term trend has
also </SPAN></FONT><FONT color=black><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT color=black face=Arial
size=2><SPAN style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">turned
down today......this is the first time since October of 98. </SPAN></FONT><FONT
color=black><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT color=black face=Arial
size=2><SPAN style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">As
always....comments welcome.</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=black><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT color=black face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">
Adam Hefner</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=black><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
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style="COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt"> </SPAN></FONT><FONT
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style="COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt"> </SPAN></FONT><FONT
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style="COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt"></SPAN></FONT><FONT color=black><SPAN
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