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When the intraday action is volatile, analyze in a shorter time frame, like
intraday!
If you don't have the means to follow or anticipate the action, stand aside
until the
volatility subsides.
..mark
At 03:20 PM 11/30/98 -0700, you wrote:
>The action in EGGS today raises any number of questions. As short
>preface, EGGS closed Friday at 31 5/8. Traded this morning at 40 before
>diving to 17. Repeated attempts to rally ran to about 30 then rode the
>wide decline to close at 25 1/2.
>
>How much value can we place on Metastock or any TA when we see
>volatility like this?
> Can such anomalies be seen ahead if one knows what to look for?
> What can one interpret from today's kind of action?
>
>When today is many yesterdays away, the extremes of today's movements
>probably don't show up so large in most systems, is that good or bad?
>
>Obviously, if TA is lacking in these instances, pure fundamental
>analysis must be worthless. So do we attribute action like today's as
>confirmation of "Conspiracy Theory" or to pure emotional response or to
>emotional response to carefully constructed technical analysis? Or do
>we say TA helps . . . about as much as luck?
>
>Meanwhile a quiet stock that I have followed for years (MCRE) jumps
>111% today. ( close 8 1/16 after hitting 11 3/8.) I saw the announcement
>of a license deal to Microsoft and the stock was up about 10 or 20%.
>So then while I try to figure out EGGS, my brain doesn't process the
>fact that my attentions should be to what impact such a Microsoft
>announcement might make on MCRE even without any details of $s. I guess
>my observation to this one (MCRE) are
>1. Don't slight my God-given computer for all the numbers a 233mhz can
>generate.
>2. Follow the advice of Jim and many others, don't dwell on "mistakes",
>"bad luck" or whatever else we call it, but use the new information and
>the new price to help make a pleasing deal tomorrow.
>
>sga (sour grapes addendum):
> I would guarantee that 90% of today's buyers had never heard of
>MCRE, didn't even care to see any $# and made money while those of us
>"smart" ones are left in the dust. Is this an emotional net-greed
>spreading to a broader base? On the other hand I could have bought EGGS
>at 40, been too liberal with a stop, and eaten crow for breakfast and
>lunch.
>
>
>
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