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Hi Craig,
Yes the last leg is Dynamic, and in the "System Tester" the
results will change as new data is added, but (so far in my testing)
using the "Expert" I have not noticed (yet) any "reversing" of signals
from day to day. What you write makes sense to me and I will
proceed with great caution! I will let the group know if it proves
unreliable.
I am studying Steve's system with great interest
Thanks Craig..... I appreciate your advice!
Adam Hefner
-----Original Message-----
From: Craig DeHaan <cdehaan@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Sunday, August 23, 1998 1:35 AM
Subject: Re: Weekly Pick (long), ...picking weakly
>Adam,
>
>Your Price Oscillator System formulation, tho testing highly profitable,
>I fear might tread in the land of Zig-Zag induced treachery.
>
>To wit: Notice how the oscillator amazingly always turns back toward
>zero when, without knowing the future arrival of the next peak or trough
>there would be no mathmatical reason for such an indicator movement
>reversal. This is happening because the Zig Zag 2% criteria called for
>in the Peak and Trough functions knows in retrospect when price moves to
>create either a 2% peak or trough. As you move forward from today any
>new buy/sell signals will possibly reverse themselves as new data is
>added that creates new 2% price troughs or peaks.
>
>As MSWIN help states, "Be forewarned, that the last leg (i.e., segment)
>of the Zig Zag is dynamic, meaning that it can change. Therefore, be
>careful when designing system tests, experts, etc. based on the Zig Zag
>indicator."
>
>It sure tested pretty. Even one of my favorite dogs, WDC, did +13,640%
>in 24 mos. (read a 136 bagger). I think you need to establish a fixed
>or individually optimized oscillator criteria, something similar to
>Steve's Forecast Oscillator(Close,4) crossing select trigger levels to
>avoid this situation. If not for that, you might have stumbled on the
>"Holy Moley" for real! Powerball, anyone?
>
>Craig
>
>
>Von Hef wrote:
>>
>> Hi Onno,
>> I have given more detail in other postings to John
>> and Steve, but if you have missed them or have
>> other questions, I would be glad to share with you
>> more info. What would you like to know?
>> Adam.
>>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: Onno Goedknegt <goedkneg@xxxxxx>
>> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> Date: Saturday, August 22, 1998 9:04 PM
>> Subject: Re: Weekly Pick (long), ...picking weakly
>>
>> >Thanks Adam, for sharing you trading ideas with us!
>> >
>> >Are you able and willing... to share your trading system
>> >more in detail with us?
>> >
>> >Thanks,
>> >Onno
>> >
>> >At 13:20 22-8-98 -0500, you wrote:
>> >> Thanks John and Steve for your valuable insight!
>> >>My system is also mechanical and I mostly deal in the Futures market,
>> >>so I will post my system test using Lumber also. First I decided
>> >>to use a mechanical system to help remove the "emotions" from
>> >>my trade decisions. Also this system is new (I am also a little
>> green.....to
>> >>trading) so I am still testing this on different markets.
>> >> This system simply uses a crossing oscillator of PEAK and TROUGH to
>> >>trigger buy and sell signals, so far there seem to be little fitting
>> needed
>> >>to
>> >>apply to other markets, but my testing is not yet exhaustive. It could
>> >>easily be
>> >>modified for different trading styles such as "The Trend Is Your
Friend"
>> >>and other rules.
>> >> PLEASE feel free to critique, suggest, comment or "warn of impending
>> >>danger".
>> >>I value the experience thats in this group!
>> >> Adam Hefner
>> >> VonHef@xxxxxxxxxx
>> >>
>
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