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Chris:
Whatis the Alfords index and how is it calculated?
Lionel
At 12:15 PM 6/21/98 +0800, Chris Henderson wrote:
>Adrian,
>
>I think you are right that my study is flawed. The data doesnt show what I
>thought it did. Thanks for pointing out my mistake.
>
>The Allords index
>is indeed rising all the time - interestingly it follows an exponential
>curve quite closely over the last 100 years. For this reason we shouldnt be
>too surprised that the absolute numbers are now getting bigger quite fast.
>Using a logarithmic scale we see a straight line increase which is much
>more realistic.
>
>
>Originally I did look at the changes in % terms, and in answer to your
>question about
>the % rise I attach two other graphs. These show only one component of the
>price patterns: the 'uptrend' zigs (I define 'uptrend' as a unit of a rise
>and fall where the second low is higher than the first). You can see that
>the percentage of each rise has been decreasing, and the rise time has also
>been decreasing over the period of the study.
>
>Looking at the %rate of change of each of these components
>shows only a slight increase in the %fall ROC but none in the %rise ROC.
>Which,
>I think, was your point.
>
>
>Regards
>
>Chris
>
>-----------------------------------------------------------------------
>Adrian Pitt wrote:
>Your 50 point zig zag study is flawed if i am not mistaken. You need
>to redo your calculations on a % basis. Of course the swings will be
>bigger now than in 1982...the index has increased five fold. I would
>be interested to see if your conlcusion still remains the same..I
>would hazard a guess that it will not.
>-------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Lionel Issen
lissen@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
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