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I've
always been interested in the dlevels approach but haven't fully embraced it yet
and doubt I'll ever be a "proper" dlevels student either :-)
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I am
far too impatient at the moment to deal with trades on a daily or longer
timeframe. I've been trying to daytrade the SP/ES and ND/NQ futures using
Walter Bressert's cycle methodology which essentially uses a stochastic on
steroids and moving average as trend indicator. He looks at 7 and 20
minute bar charts for day trading, and 54, 102, and 203 minute charts for main
SP swing cycle, and daily and weekly just for kicks.
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He
uses fibonacci retracements to qualify lower time frame trend continuation
re-entries in looking for at least a .382 retracement but willing to take
support against .500 and .628 as well. This is pretty much equivalent to
the Dlevels Bed and Breakfast trade except without the thrust
requirement.
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He
also uses the same COP,OP,XOP fib projections ratios on longer timeframes,
except he only uses them off the Bressert 16-18 bar cycle high/lows for a
particular timeframe. <FONT
face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>This alleviates the problem I have with the
current Dlevels method of taking projections off of seemingly arbitrary A,B,C
swing points.
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On the
short term 7 min chart, he uses some sort of parabolic-like trailing stop to
exit, but when I've had too much caffeine, I start playing with 1 and 3 minute
charts and find that there just isn't enough time to calculate and update
trailing stops every bar. And when playing with the NQ futures, they fly
around so much that I find that I have the best success by entering on a limit
near a fib support point and simply getting out on an easy to calculate and
graph OP target.
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<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Bressert talks a lot about SP having fairly quantized moves like 10
points from high/low, or 15 points, or 20 or 30 points. I don't really buy
into the quantized move stuff and in fact find that I get more accurate fib
projections based on the most recent 16-18 bar
cycle.
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So I'm
kinda sorta picking and choosing bits and pieces of different methodologies and
trying to stick them together into what works for my personality. I
definitely don't feel comfortable trading a stock that I haven't been able to
watch L2 and time and sales behavior for some time no matter how
tempting the directional signal, probably because I have only played with
highly volatile tech stocks where pushing big orders around can be a real
drag.
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<FONT
face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>One of these days I'm going to get back to
research and start sticking the Dlevels MACD and Stoch and DMA indicators back
on, but unfortunately Bressert's analysis technique suffers from indicatoritis
and I can't possibly fit another indicator onto my laptop screen going into a
visual overstimulus epileptic fit :-)
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<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Lastly, I keep noticing that even though Joe and Neal have said to ignore
the .768 ratio, I run into way too many instances of short term intraday swing
cycles bottoming against that retracement. I notice some people have
posted about the .768 ratio and some "Gartley" method. Could someone
elucidate me on who or what Gartley is?
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<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>-Ken
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<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Max Vogt, Ph.D.
[mailto:maxtrout@xxxxxxx]Sent: Saturday, January 27, 2001 8:06
AMTo: dlevels@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: [dlevels]
sdli
Well here's an interesting discussion. I'd
love to see that argument, and would love to go short after a day long in
sdli. Is sdli in a downmove? Please prove me
wrong. What time frames are you looking at? I'm looking at the
dailies. Thrust up? Yes. Enough bars of thrust? Not
according to Hoyle. However, I see a difference between study of
equities (or other instruments) you are not studying daily and ones you
know well, in terms of their price movements. Truth is that with sdli, all
you have to do is get the right time of day, right Futures, right L2
reading, etc. and you can very handily take a few points off the table without
breaking a sweat. In this case, a strong 382 rt on the
last upmove gave me all I needed to know (plus experience with
the stock). However, I am probably much too much of a momentum or trend
trader to be a proper dlevel student. Yet I would like to learn more,
and hear further arguments against pure momentum plays. To show my massive
ignorance, I even use 382 & 500 retracements (and MACD/Stochastic
combination, detrended oscillator, and VOLUME) on five minute charts during the
day to enter trades, especially on shorts, regardless of the larger trend;
sometimes I don't even look past the 5 minute chart or know a thing
about the overall actions of some stocks; many of them I've never heard of
before, like INFI on Friday. The percentages on
this approach (given futures a the time, s & p trading, L2, gaps,
etc) come out to be very close to 90%, and with very tight stops, the
win/loss ratio is...well, very good.
Please forward your fib study on
sdli! 12 points one day long and forty in a couple of days short sounds
like good money to me.
Also, if I am being a pest in bringing up other
aproaches to trading and combining them with dlevels rather than taking a pure
dlevel approach, please would other members tell me so and I will stop doing
this and only report on more pure dlevel studies or trades I am looking at or
taking.
Max
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Kevin
Bryant
To: <A title=dlevels@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:dlevels@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>dlevels@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Friday, January 26, 2001 10:54
PM
Subject: Re: [dlevels] sdli
Might it be that the same time frame is not being
discussed by all here? A fib argument could be made for a price in the
low 170's in a few days.
Kevin
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did you see that fib bounce on
sdli?
said yesterday I'd take any excuse to enter
long in the am.
sdli gave "plenty of excuses"
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