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Assumptions and academic exercises aside, all that matters is whether
the system/methodology produces satisfactory results for the user.
That's the bottom line and the rest takes second place.
Bill
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "brian_z111" <brian_z111@xxx> wrote:
>
> >Look in Files Section - Listing Dow Waves by Gerard Carey
excellent.
>
> No disrespect to Gerard Carey but I don't rate this as an excellent
> TA study. It is the start of an interesting discussion and I do
thank
> Gerard for sharing it.
>
> As I pointed out to Gerard at the time, the Dow Indicator entry
> signals are very similar to an Inverse Reversion To Mean System,
> which is bread and butter in the industry.
> They always look great on a chart with a longer than average trend
in
> place (which obviously occurs less than 50% of the time).
>
> From memory, if you look at Gerard's example chart of the Dow
> Indicator plotted on the ^DJI it makes 12 - 13 successive touches
of
> a bullish MA.
>
> My propostion regarding waves, or cycles, is that if you measure
> their frequency, and magnitude, you can expect to get a lot of
> variance and something approaching a bell curve if they are
> distributed (either frequency or magnitude).
>
> So 12 - 13 successive touches of a bullish MA that continue on to a
> higher high is not something that happens all that frequently.
> To provide some balance look at the same indicator on some other
> charts, or better still backtest it to obtain a larger dataset.
>
> If we could predict when a stock, or any other instrument, is going
> into a long term trend (cf a short term trend) we wouldn't need any
> other indicators at all.
>
>
> brian_z
>
>
>
>
>
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "areehoi" <areehoi@> wrote:
> >
> >
> > Look in Files Section - Listing Dow Waves by Gerard Carey
> excellent.
> >
> > Dick H.
> >
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "greenhorn1983" <greenhorn1983@>
> > wrote:
> > >
> > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "MarkK" <MailYahoo@> wrote:
> > > >
> > > > Was curious if anyone had written an ALF for Dow theory
trades
> as of
> > > yet?
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > MarkK
> > > >
> > >
> > > i've also been thinking about it lately :)
> > >
> >
>
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