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o> I would be cautious, most "systems" look good when backtested, o>
but do not trade well going forward ..... Larry
To which I just have to add:
Even if you buy a *great* system, assuming there was even one for
sale, all "great" systems experience drawdowns, and there is no
guarantee you won't experience one immediately after embarking upon
trading with it.
It could further shatter your confidence, and wallet.
My advice? The markets obviously ended an extended low-volatility
period a couple of weeks ago. Historically, these long periods of
quiet that are suddenly subject to a major disturbance indicate more
turbulence ahead. You should expect as many as 5 or more "accidents"
in the upcoming year. An "accident" would be 2 percent or more off
the broad averages in a day, seemingly out of nowhere. Although it
didn't happen yet, you should expect a "follow-through accident" in
the coming year.
The *only* defense here, even if you are a seasoned professional, is
to reduce position size. The 100-dollar bet you place today carries
more risk than the same bet placed 4 weeks ago. You must adjust to
this reality.
If you are in a bad streak, you need to consider reducing position
size even more dramatically, or taking a break. Mr. Market will
always be there, and you can get some confidence back from simple
observation and study.
But you *must* reduce position size going forward for the time being,
if you don't take a rest.
The markets may well end the year up. Or not. But I guarantee a
bloody-nose-tough year, this year. Right now I'm telling you that
the market may be right here at this level in November, having
churned you but good in the meantime between now and then. Then it
may suddenly tack on 8 percent. Or it may not.
Short story: There is no train leaving the station. It left in
2002, slowed down a couple of times to let hitchhikers jump on along
the way, but has yet to stop for refueling.
They will be passing the hat to collect for fuel before too long.
Probably this year. Doesn't mean a bear market necessarily, just one
that will likely whipsaw you into another hobby or line of work. I've
seen it before.
Yuki
o> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "davelansing2004" <d.ankrapp@xxx>
o> wrote:
>>
>> Has anybody purchased Bill Seward's course featured on the Amibroker
>> website? My trading has been dismal for quite awhile and so I'm
>> willing to purchase a reputable methodology in order to get back on
>> track, money-wise, while trying to get my confidence back.
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