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Hi Tom Tom:
Yes, an interesting article. I was particularly intrigued by this line:
"technical analysis has not been validated in controlled studies "
Is there any evidence that what we are trying to do might ever work? How
could we prove that it does?
chuck
----- Original Message -----
From: "Tom Tom" <michel_b_g@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, December 01, 2006 5:12 PM
Subject: [amibroker] Random Walk - step 2 - : Predicitable ?
> To go on dicussion about random walk, nice article at the middle of this
> page :
>
> http://www.duke.edu/~rnau/411georw.htm
>
> Combine: Random Walk and Prediction.
> Technical analysis... usefull ? Financial information ... usefull ? Even
> illegal information (hidden to public) .. usefull ? Last one maybe.
> Others,
> humm....
> This is what about deals this article.
>
> For me, next theory could be a Chaotic Fractal Near-Random Walk... : ))
> Chaotic : because spurious peak in the data wich can initiate further
> mouvment
> Fractal : year, month, day, hour, minute, sec... same patterns
> Near-Random Walk : Random Walk but predictable, because i don't think
> price
> move randomly...
> If they move randomly... tehnical or fundamental analysis are useless, so
> there is no mean to try to trade at all, (only to give commission to the
> broker héhé).
>
> Seriously, from this article, what seems emerging from last years, is that
> price is random walk, but volatility maybe not... It is well explained in
> the article. Arch and Garch model are mentionned.
> Someone try this on AB ? Trade based only about volatility prediction (so
> predict risk, and manage portfolio depending those prediction about
> volatility)... and so don't bother with the price random-walk ?
>
>
> Cheers,
> Mich
>
> _________________________________________________________________
> Les révélations de la starac 6 commentées par Jérémy!
> http://starac2006.spaces.live.com/
>
>
>
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