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I
personally find Elliott to be confusing with too many exceptions to every rule.
I have spent a lot of time on Miner and prefer his approach of using price and
time to make forecasts. That being said I have found the approach to work best
on larger more liquid stocks. This is probably because the big institutions are
driving these stocks and they tend to move shares with a more systematic
approach. This is similar to Fib retracement. If the big guys are watching these
numbers and trading off of them then they work for us as well. If the stock is
smaller and being driven by retail trade then they may be less effective. Stocks
have personalities, if a given approach is working in the recent past then it is
more likely to work in the near future. I think it was Pring who said "A stock
remains in a Trend until that is no longer the case". The same is true for
a lot of TA techniques. That a given approach has worked well for the past year
does not necessarily mean it worked well 10 years ago, nor that it will work
well 5 years from now. Others will argue that if an approach has not worked well
for 10+ years it is not worth following. Different
strokes.........
Jayson
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Rick Parsons
[mailto:RickParsons@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Thursday, April 24, 2003
10:41 AMTo: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: RE:
[amibroker] trends
<FONT color=#000080
size=2>Jason,
<FONT color=#000080
size=2>
Thanks, this is
very impressive. This new explanation helps.
<FONT color=#000080
size=2>
Do you follow
Elliot/Miner? What do you think of their methods?
<FONT color=#000080
size=2>
<FONT color=#000080
size=2>Thanks,
<FONT color=#000080 face="Vladimir Script"
size=5>Rick
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Jayson
[mailto:jcasavant@xxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Thursday, April 24, 2003 1:05
AMTo: 1amiSubject: [amibroker]
trends
<SPAN
class=731125104-24042003>Rick,
<SPAN
class=731125104-24042003>
a picture is worth
a thousand words....
<SPAN
class=731125104-24042003>
<IMG
align=baseline alt="" border=0 hspace=0
src="gif00252.gif">
In this chart the
current swing direction is up, therefore I am calculating Impulse waves. Swing
1 is the previous wave up, swing 2 the wave prior and swing 3 the wave prior
to that. The top the chart identifies which direction the calculations
are being made for. If you wanted to see the calculations for the reaction
waves (the down waves) use the parameter switch. The first line "Bars since
swing" is giving the running calculation of the swing in progress, The
averages are based on the prior 3 swings and does not include the swing in
progress.
<SPAN
class=731125104-24042003>
The green bars are
marking the the first bar after the turn, the white bar marks the first bar
considered in the ATR look back. If the state was down the red bars would be
marking the first bar after the down swing.
<SPAN
class=731125104-24042003>
Elliot and Miner
view Impulse and reaction moves as different animals. When calculating the up
moves you use data from previous up moves when calculating down moves you use
data from previous down moves.
Jayson
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