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Re: [amibroker] Re: Help - Unrealistic Results (for Stewart)



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Hi Stewart,
in AA/BacktesterSettings you can include more data to put 
on the report;
for example formula, settings, "trade list with prices and 
pos size", and even more.
For verification purposes the same settings are 
necessary...
UM
 
<BLOCKQUOTE 
>
  ----- Original Message ----- 
  <DIV 
  >From: 
  <A title=stewart@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  href="">Stewart 
  To: <A title=amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  href="">amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  Sent: Sunday, April 20, 2003 1:03 
AM
  Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Help - 
  Unrealistic Results (for Stewart)
  
  Chuck,
   
  The attached report is with no 1 day delay, .5% 
  commision, still seems unreal.
  <BLOCKQUOTE 
  >
    ----- Original Message ----- 
    <DIV 
    >From: 
    <A title=chuck_rademacher@xxxxxxxxxx 
    href="">Chuck Rademacher 
    To: <A title=amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
    href="">amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
    Sent: Saturday, April 19, 2003 11:49 
    PM
    Subject: RE: [amibroker] Re: Help - 
    Unrealistic Results (for Stewart)
    
    I 
    didn't comment before, but in my opinion, using a one cent commission rate 
    is not very realistic.   Many in this group tend to use 
    0.5%.  I use 1.0% to make sure that I include adequate slippage on 
    trades that enter at the next open.
    <FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
    size=2> 
    <FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
    size=2>Another thing... I don't know about anyone else, but I ALWAYS have my 
    interest rate set to zero.   Otherwise, a system that isn't in the 
    market very often or uses a small percentage of available capital can make 
    enough money on interest to cover up deficiencies in the trading 
    system.    After deciding that the system has merit and 
    selecting parameters, etc., I may set the interest to some value to see how 
    a fund using the system might fare.
    <FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
    size=2> 
    <FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
    size=2> 
    <BLOCKQUOTE 
    >
      <FONT face="Times New Roman" 
      size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Stewart 
      [mailto:stewart@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Saturday, April 19, 2003 
      6:37 PMTo: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: 
      [amibroker] Re: Help - Unrealistic Results (for 
      Stewart)
      
      The defaults as shown, give the results:<FONT color=#0000ff 
      size=1>
      ApplyStop(<FONT color=#0000ff 
      size=1>Optimize( <FONT color=#ff00ff 
      size=1>"Type", <FONT color=#ff00ff 
      size=1>1, <FONT face="Courier New" 
      color=#ff00ff size=1>1, <FONT 
      face="Courier New" color=#ff00ff size=1>1, 
      1 ),<FONT 
      color=#0000ff size=1>Optimize( <FONT 
      color=#ff00ff size=1>"Mode", <FONT 
      color=#ff00ff size=1>1,<FONT face="Courier New" 
      color=#ff00ff size=1>1, <FONT 
      face="Courier New" color=#ff00ff size=1>1, 
      1 )
      ,Optimize( 
      "Amount", 
      0, <FONT 
      color=#ff00ff size=1>0, <FONT 
      face="Courier New" color=#ff00ff size=1>0, 
      1 ),<FONT 
      color=#ff00ff size=1>1,<FONT color=#ff00ff 
      size=1>1);
      <BLOCKQUOTE 
      >
        ----- Original Message ----- 
        <DIV 
        >From: 
        <A title=chuck_rademacher@xxxxxxxxxx 
        href="">Chuck Rademacher 
        To: <A 
        title=amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
        href="">amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
        
        Sent: Saturday, April 19, 2003 
        11:35 PM
        Subject: RE: [amibroker] Re: Help - 
        Unrealistic Results (for Stewart)
        
        <FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
        size=2>No worries... we are all just trying to help and we don't expect 
        you to divulge your system... especially one that looks that 
        good!
        <FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
        size=2> 
        <FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
        size=2>The problem is that it is hard to debug a problem when the system 
        supplied isn't the same system that produced the results 
        supplied.
        <FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
        size=2> 
        <FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
        size=2>As you can see from the other posts, several of us ran your 
        system, either on our own basket(s) of stocks or your specific stocks 
        and (I think) we all got negative returns.   There must be 
        some sort of "future leak" involved in one or more of your 
        settings.   As you can see in your results, every trade lasted 
        exactly one day... highly suspicious and possibly suggesting future leak 
        somewhere.
        <FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
        size=2> 
        <FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
        size=2>I'll have a closer look later today and I think others are 
        looking as well.
        <FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
        size=2> 
        <FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
        size=2>The system you supplied was set up for optimisation.  Your 
        performance figures were based on only one set of parameters derived 
        from your optimisation.  It would be a HUGE benefit to anyone 
        trying to help you to know exactly which stop parameters were used to 
        derive the spectacular results.
        <FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
        size=2> 
        <FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
        size=2> 
        <FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
        size=2>Cheers
        <FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
        size=2> 
        <BLOCKQUOTE 
        >
          <FONT face="Times New Roman" 
          size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Stewart 
          [mailto:stewart@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Saturday, April 19, 
          2003 6:19 PMTo: 
          amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Help 
          - Unrealistic Results
          Chuck (and Anyone Else that 
          missunderstood),
           
          I sincerely apologize if my post was 
          misleading. My original message did say "similiar", and I assumed the 
          people helping had seen that. I've been following this group for 
          awhile (although silently until fairly recently), and it seems fairly 
          common not to divulge the system specifics when trying to debug 
          something. Having said that, my actual system was almost exactly as my 
          example, however, the prices were actual composite prices that I built 
          (e.g. Close of MSFT + Close of Cisco)/2. I am fairly certain that the 
          issue isn't with the system conditions, but with the stop or 
          other system settings, which is what I was trying to 
          highlight.
           
          Regards,
           
          Stewart
           
           
          <BLOCKQUOTE 
          >
            ----- Original Message ----- 
            <DIV 
            >From: 
            <A title=chuck_rademacher@xxxxxxxxxx 
            href="">Chuck Rademacher 

            To: <A 
            title=amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
            href="">amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
            
            Sent: Saturday, April 19, 2003 
            9:45 PM
            Subject: RE: [amibroker] Re: 
            Help - Unrealistic Results
            
            <FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
            size=2>Like a lot of people on this board, I spent some time looking 
            at this particular post in an effort to help someone with a 
            problem.
            <FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
            size=2> 
            <FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
            size=2>Also, like a lot of others, I found that the system (as 
            presented) lost money no matter which stocks I tested it 
            on.
            <FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
            size=2> 
            <FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
            size=2>Then... we get a message that the system (as presented) was 
            only "similar" to the one with the problem.
            <FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
            size=2> 
            <FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
            size=2>It's one thing to not divulge a good system to 
            the group and another to let us waste our time debugging a 
            non-existent system.
            <FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
            size=2> 
            <FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
            size=2>The original post did say it was "similar", so I'll confess 
            to reading too much into it.Send BUG 
            REPORTS to 
      bugs@xxxxxxxxxxxxx






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