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[amibroker] Re: Monte Carlo Simulation - MCS



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Bob- They do complement each other even though they're two totally
separate products.  If you really get into simulation, you'll
eventually want both. I know Resampling Stats has a trial version and
I think XLSim might also.  Not a lot of overhead on my old machine and
pretty fast too.

Mark

--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Bob Jagow" <bjagow@xxxx> wrote:
> Thanks, Mark.
> Re XLSim and Resampling Stats, do they complement each other?
> Also, I tried a couple of AI addins back when (Excel 5.0?) and thought
> them slooow; can I expect a lot of xla overhead with these under
> excel2k?
> 
> TIA,
> Bob
> 
> 
> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: markf2 [mailto:feierstein@x...]
> Sent: Saturday, April 19, 2003 12:28 PM
> To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: [amibroker] Re: Monte Carlo Simulation - MCS
> 
> 
> Bob- Yes I did.  Downloaded and used it for a while a few years ago
> but dumped it for the others.
> 
> Mark
> 
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Bob Jagow" <bjagow@xxxx> wrote:
> > Mark,
> > Did you happen to look at simtools?
> > http://home.uchicago.edu/~rmyerson/addins.htm
> > I'm not an Excel whiz so just squirreled it away for the future.
> >
> > Bob
> >
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: markf2 [mailto:feierstein@x...]
> > Sent: Friday, April 18, 2003 9:45 AM
> > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: [amibroker] Re: Monte Carlo Simulation - MCS
> >
> >
> > Phsst- I use XLSim and Resampling Stats.  Both are inexpensive and
> > extremely flexible since they're Excel-based.
> >
> > http://www.analycorp.com/software.htm#details2
> >
> >
>
http://www.resample.com/cgi-bin/DCshop/dcshop.cgi?action=view_category&data=
=
base=resamp&category=0
> >
> > Mark
> >
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "phsst" <phsst@xxxx> wrote:
> > > Chuck,
> > >
> > > I looked at the TradeSim Slide Show. The interface seems to require
> > > Metastock for data and indicator plug-in. So how is the AB backtest
> > > export file interfaced into TradeSim? And does it work without
> > Metastock?
> > >
> > > Regards,
> > >
> > > Phsst
> > >
> > >
> > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Chuck Rademacher"
> > > <chuck_rademacher@x> wrote:
> > > > If anyone is interested in Monte Carlo Simulation, it is possible
> to
> > > take
> > > > the backtest output from AB into something called TradeSim which
> > > will give
> > > > you 1,001 reports including a very high-powered MCS capability.
> I
> > > probably
> > > > do 20 to 30 MCS runs a day using TradeSim with AB exported data.
> > > >
> > > > TradeSim is available from:  http://www.compuvision.com.au
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >   -----Original Message-----
> > > >   From: markf2 [mailto:feierstein@x...]
> > > >   Sent: Thursday, April 17, 2003 10:55 PM
> > > >   To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > >   Subject: [amibroker] Re: The request for "variable" period
> > functions
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >   And as for MCS, it stands for Monte Carlo Simulation.  MCS can
> > give
> > > >   you a distribution of potential future outcomes if the inputs
> are
> > > >   representative of how the system will perform in the future.  In
> > broad
> > > >   terms, if the basket of trades from your system test is
> > representative
> > > >   of the system's population of future trades, MCS can calculate a
> > > >   distribution of drawdowns and profits based on 10,000 (or
> > however many
> > > >   you want) different equity curves simulated from that basket of
> > trades
> > > >   given your money management parameters.  From that you can
> > estimate
> > > >   the probabilities of different profit/loss levels.  You can also
> > do
> > > >   this for groups of stocks to make portfolio drawdown and
> > profit/loss
> > > >   distributions.  This is more "forward-looking" and
> > multidimensional
> > > >   than portfolio backtesting and pyramiding on historical quotes.
> > > >
> > > >   --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Fred" <fctonetti@xxxx> wrote:
> > > >   > The AMA or AMA2 .vs. EMA will give you a simple view of the
> > > >   > differences in potential.
> > > >   >
> > > >   > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Al Venosa" <advenosa@xxxx>
> > wrote:
> > > >   > > Well, Mark, I have to admit I know nothing about adaptive
> > > >   > indicators, so obviously I haven't ever tested them. In fact,
> I
> > > don't
> > > >   > even know what an MCS is (I hate acronyms, and I've worked for
> > the
> > > >   > Government all my life!!)! I have tested various position
> sizing
> > > >   > algorithms, as I'm a firm believer in position sizing as a
> > means of
> > > >   > controlling risk. All I know is that portfolio backtesting and
> > > >   > pyramiding are tops on my wish list and have been ever since I
> > > bought
> > > >   > AB back in Nov of 2001, and judging from many posts in the far
> > and
> > > >   > near past, I think there are lots of others who are anxiously
> > > >   > awaiting this feature, too. Since the topic of adaptive
> > indicators
> > > >   > was only introduced for the first time yesterday, I believe, I
> > was
> > > >   > just thinking that perhaps it hasn't been a top priority on
> many
> > > >   > people's wish lists. I will gladly concede to you and others
> > if I'm
> > > >   > wrong, since I still consider myself a rank beginner in AFL as
> > well
> > > >   > as trading in general. Tell me more about adaptive indicators
> > and
> > > >   > what their advantages are over static ones. Maybe give some
> > > examples?
> > > >   > Thanks.
> > > >   > >
> > > >   > > Al Venosa
> > > >   > >   ----- Original Message -----
> > > >   > >   From: markf2
> > > >   > >   To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > >   > >   Sent: Thursday, April 17, 2003 9:50 PM
> > > >   > >   Subject: [amibroker] Re: The request for "variable" period
> > > >   > functions
> > > >   > >
> > > >   > >
> > > >   > >   Really?  Have you done much testing with adaptive
> > indicators?
> > > >   > Have
> > > >   > >   you ever tried position sizing with MCS (which is much
> more
> > > >   > powerful
> > > >   > >   and versatile)?
> > > >   > >
> > > >   > >   --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Al Venosa"
> > <advenosa@xxxx>
> > > >   > wrote:
> > > >   > >   > I wholeheartedly agree with Jerome. Portfolio
> > backtesting and
> > > >   > >   pyramiding, in my opinion, are much more important that
> > > >   > introducing
> > > >   > >   more indicators, dynamic or not. I sure hope this new
> task,
> > if
> > > >   > >   adopted, does not distract or slow down Tomasz from
> > developing
> > > >   > what I
> > > >   > >   think lots more people wish to have as part of the AB
> > engine. My
> > > >   > >   opinion, FWIW.
> > > >   > >   >
> > > >   > >   > Al Venosa
> > > >   > >   >
> > > >   > >   >   ----- Original Message -----
> > > >   > >   >   From: Silvarius
> > > >   > >   >   To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > >   > >   >   Sent: Thursday, April 17, 2003 4:12 PM
> > > >   > >   >   Subject: RE: [amibroker] The request for "variable"
> > period
> > > >   > functions
> > > >   > >   >
> > > >   > >   >
> > > >   > >   >   I second Dimitris in his Opinion. Portfolio
> backtesting
> > > >   > >   enhancement is much more critical IMHO.
> > > >   > >   >
> > > >   > >   >   Best regards, Jérôme ULRICH
> > > >   > >   >     -----Message d'origine-----
> > > >   > >   >     De : DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS [mailto:TSOKAKIS@x...]
> > > >   > >   >     Envoyé : jeudi 17 avril 2003 21:41
> > > >   > >   >     À : amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > >   > >   >     Objet : [amibroker] The request for "variable"
> period
> > > >   > functions
> > > >   > >   >
> > > >   > >   >
> > > >   > >   >     Everybody asks for variable period possibilities, as
> > > if AFL
> > > >   > is poor
> > > >   > >   >     in this logic.
> > > >   > >   >     Let us take a closer look :
> > > >   > >   >     Variable Period smoothing functions:
> > > >   > >   >     MA, DEMA, TEMA do accept variable period.
> > > >   > >   >     The remaining EMA can accept through
> > EMA(ARRAY,PER)==AMA
> > > >   > (ARRAY,2/
> > > >   > >   >     (PER+1))
> > > >   > >   >     Is there any other type of smoothing used in your
> > > >   > formulas ???
> > > >   > >   >     RSI works through RSIA, CCI works through CCIA
> > > >   > >   >     MACD through above described EMA.
> > > >   > >   >     What is next?
> > > >   > >   >     How about StochK and StochD with variable per ?
> > > >   > >   >     Perhaps you do not know that you can do it NOW in
> pure
> > > >   > AFL !!
> > > >   > >   >     The HHV and LLV functions work fine with variable
> > period.
> > > >   > >   >     per=10+cum(1)%20;
> > > >   > >   >
> > StochKa=MA(100*(C-LLV(L,per))/(HHV(H,per)-LLV(L,per)),3);
> > > >   > >   >     StochDa=MA(MA(100*(C-LLV(L,per))/(HHV(H,per)-LLV
> > > >   > (L,per)),3),3);
> > > >   > >   >     Is ther any other function you would like to see
> with
> > > >   > variable
> > > >   > >   >     period ?
> > > >   > >   >     Search first the definition and then see if it
> already
> > > >   > exists in
> > > >   > >   your
> > > >   > >   >     AFL potential.
> > > >   > >   >     It is better to know the definition of a Stochastic,
> > > before
> > > >   > asking
> > > >   > >   >     fast software upgrades-enhanchments.
> > > >   > >   >     In my opinion, the lack of definition will always
> > confuse
> > > >   > the user,
> > > >   > >   >     with fixed or variable period.
> > > >   > >   >     Dimitris Tsokakis
> > > >   > >   >
> > > >   > >   >
> > > >   > >   >
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