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Re: Money Management (MM) - Thread Summary



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Mark,

I'm interested in Monte Carlo simulation. Can you offer a reference 
on how to do such an analysis? I presume you do it in Excel? Thanks.

Al V.

--- In amibroker@xxxx, "MarkF2" <feierstein@xxxx> wrote:
> Hi Stephane- And the best way that I know of to understand it is 
monte
> carlo simulation (MCS). MCS makes it simple.
> 
> Mark
> 
> --- In amibroker@xxxx, "Stephane Carrasset" <nenapacwanfr@xxxx> 
wrote:
> > Hi mark,
> > 
> > yes it must ( I have read the book and found it essential +++)
> > but it is not obvious with the position size .
> > it is important to understand how it works ( and sometimes I am 
lost)
> > 
> > stephane
> > 
> > 
> > > Hi Stephane, that may be true, but that was not my point. I'm 
just
> > > saying that Van Tharp's methods work if applied correctly.
> > > 
> > > Mark
> > > 
> > > --- In amibroker@xxxx, "Stephane Carrasset" <nenapacwanfr@xxxx> 
> > wrote:
> > > > Hello,
> > > > 
> > > > I agree with Hermann for its question about MM, because if we 
> > take a 
> > > > profitable system ( not tradable because of the zig function) 
and 
> > > > apply it with a simple position size= -10
> > > > the system is losing ( it is incredible because the zig look 
in 
> > the 
> > > > future !!!)
> > > > 
> > > > I think we must first understand how is calculated the profit 
in 
> > > > AMibroker with position size,because this is the reason of 
the 
> > > > doubts about MM
> > > > 
> > > > stephane
> > > > 
> > > > 
> > > > > Herman- With all due respect, many of your conclusions are 
flat 
> > out
> > > > > wrong. You haven't even read Van Tharp's stuff, let alone 
> > tested 
> > > > it
> > > > > so that's not surprising.  
> > > > > 
> > > > > I don't have time to give a point by point dissertation, so 
> > will 
> > > > leave
> > > > > you with the big picture. Read "Trade Your Way to 
Financial 
> > > > Freedom"
> > > > > and *test* some of the ideas with monte carlo simulation.  
You 
> > > > don't
> > > > > need any of his other reports or references. There are 
better 
> > money
> > > > > management algorithms out there, but the principles in this 
book
> > > > > *really* work. And unless you roll up your sleeves and 
*work* 
> > with
> > > > > them so you can truly understand them, it will all go 
> > completely 
> > > > over
> > > > > your head. No way can you get it by reading opinions.  
This is 
> > > > *not*
> > > > > subjective, it's mathematics.... black and white.
> > > > > 
> > > > > Sorry if this appears harsh, but I'm continually amazed at 
how 
> > you 
> > > > and
> > > > > other *really smart* people on this thread just don't get 
money
> > > > > management. I'm *not* going to get into a pissing contest 
> > about it
> > > > > and prove that the earth is not flat. I already know it 
> > isn't.  
> > > > But
> > > > > if anyone's truly interested in learning about it (and 
nice), 
> > I'll 
> > > > be
> > > > > happy to lead a thread that walks everyone through 
examples.  
> > But 
> > > > the
> > > > > participants will need to do most of the work. Because if 
I 
> > spoon
> > > > > feed it, nobody will get it or appreciate it.
> > > > > 
> > > > > Best Regards,
> > > > > 
> > > > > Mark
> > > > > 
> > > > > "No good deed goes unpunished."
> > > > > - Related by Steve Karnish
> > > > > 
> > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxx, "Herman van den Bergen" 
<psytek@xxxx> 
> > wrote:
> > > > > > A personal review by Herman van den Bergen.
> > > > > > October – 2002
> > > > > > 
> > > > > > A sincere thank you to all who participated!
> > > > > > This thread took place on 17 October, 2002 and started 
with my
> > > > > > post "Once again: Money Management". I collected all the
> > > > > posts in
> > > > > > a word file (27 pages!) and read it several times. Some 
of the
> > > > > > examples were very convincing however in the end they, 
except 
> > for
> > > > > > some "personalized versions", lacked practical substance. 
Most
> > > > > > were based on or were similar to van Tharp's examples. I 
have
> > > > > not
> > > > > > read van Tharp's books and reports (but will in a few 
weeks) 
> > so
> > > > > > consider my words in that context.
> > > > > > 
> > > > > > Whenever somebody tells me this or that works fantastic I 
turn
> > > > > > skeptical, so it went with MM. If you want limited risk: 
go 
> > with
> > > > > > it! If you have developed a high performance trading 
system,
> > > > > don'
> > > > > > t use it: find a better way! Van Tharp's style of MM has 
great
> > > > > > appeal to traders because it promises limited risk. Many 
> > readers
> > > > > > are excited that van Tharp can make a random system 
> > profitable –
> > > > > > personally I think he wishes he had never voiced that 
example.
> > > > > > 
> > > > > > For van Tharp, Ralph Vince and others to perform 
experiments 
> > with
> > > > > > basically market-naïve people is deceiving. Nobody on 
this 
> > list
> > > > > > (I hope) is suggesting that you trade without planning, 
> > without
> > > > > > research, and without many hours of system development. 
If 
> > you do
> > > > > > so you will loose money, no doubt about it.
> > > > > > 
> > > > > > I have been investigating MM only for a couple of weeks 
and 
> > while
> > > > > > I agree it may have lots of merit when trading margin or 
> > futures
> > > > > > I am still not convinced that van Tharp's style of money
> > > > > > management is the way to go for high performance 
mechanical
> > > > > > trading systems. I don't think his style of MM was 
designed 
> > for
> > > > > > those systems, we are in a new era of system design, his 
ways 
> > are
> > > > > > the old ways. Markets and technology change.
> > > > > > 
> > > > > > I am saddened by the fact that quite a few system 
developers 
> > are
> > > > > > satisfied with low performance systems; perhaps they are 
more
> > > > > > traders than system designers. I am not looking for the 
HG 
> > and I
> > > > > > am not chasing a mirage; however two years of testing have
> > > > > > convinced me that it is possible to design many different 
> > styles
> > > > > > of high performance trading systems – if you work hard at 
it.
> > > > > > 
> > > > > > Let me share with you what I learned/concluded from the 
> > thread:
> > > > > > 
> > > > > > a.. Even if one doesn't strictly adhere to MM one 
should 
> > know
> > > > > > about it.
> > > > > > b.. The need for MM increases with the amount of 
leveraging 
> > you
> > > > > > use.
> > > > > > c.. MM Will suck the life out of any high performance
> > > > > > mechanical trading system
> > > > > > d.. Don't believe that if you have a marginal trading 
system
> > > > > > using MM will make you rich.
> > > > > > e.. Probability of profits and risks should be factored 
into
> > > > > > trading systems.
> > > > > > f.. Most of the protection provided by MM can be 
duplicated
> > > > > > through good system design and common sense portfolio 
> > management,
> > > > > > and so without the disastrous effect on profits due to the
> > > > > > application of universal statistical rules.
> > > > > > g.. The greatest risk to traders is emotional trading, 
use a
> > > > > > mechanical trading system if you can, invest small 
amounts you
> > > > > > can afford to loose, trade multiple systems, perhaps use 
AT or
> > > > > > have somebody else trade for you.
> > > > > > h.. Nobody has embedded MM into a mechanical trading 
system,
> > > > > > however it should.
> > > > > > i.. I still do not know how to apply MM to groups or 
stocks 
> > or
> > > > > > to TTM systems
> > > > > > j.. Do not use MM to compensate for weak system design
> > > > > > k.. Even when using MM profits will increase when system
> > > > > > performance goes up, do not use MM as an excuse to stop 
work 
> > on
> > > > > > your trading systems
> > > > > > l.. I still know of no way to evaluate or backtest MM
> > > > > > techniques
> > > > > > m.. Many MM examples use simplistic conditions to 
exaggerate
> > > > > > the effects of MM.
> > > > > > n.. Parameters like Expectancy may have a place in 
stock and
> > > > > > system screens
> > > > > > o.. One can Optimize trading systems for probability 
based
> > > > > > parameters, like probability of profits, winners/losers, 
DDs,
> > > > > > etc.
> > > > > > Here are some of the URLs and other sources of 
information 
> > that
> > > > > > were mentioned:
> > > > > > 
> > > > > > a.. Van Tharp's book "Trade Your Way to Financial
> > > > > Freedom"
> > > > > > b.. Van Tharp's "Money Management Report"
> > > > > > c.. http://www.turtletrader.com/money.html for a good
> > > > > > discussion on MM.
> > > > > > http://www.turtletrader.com/money5.html another good MM
> > > > > > article
> > > > > > d.. http://keplerweb.oeh.uni-
> > linz.ac.at/trading/moneyMan.htm 10
> > > > > > Free MM lessons
> > > > > > e.. http://www.streetstories.com/vt_futures96.html 
Interview
> > > > > > With Van Tharp:
> > > > > > f.. www.iitm.com to learn more about MM
> > > > > > g.. http://www.travismorien.com/FAQ/gfallacy.htm On the
> > > > > > gambler's fallacy
> > > > > > h.. Fundamentals of Money Management Part I
> > > > > > 
> > > > > > http://www.tsresearchgroup.com/print.php?
> > lang=en&page=public&arti
> > > > > > cle=public_20020402010830
> > > > > > i.. Fundamentals of Money Management Part II
> > > > > > 
> > > > > > http://www.tsresearchgroup.com/print.php?
> > lang=en&page=public&arti
> > > > > > cle=public_20020402010739
> > > > > > j.. Fundamentals of Money Management Part III
> > > > > > 
> > > > > > http://www.tsresearchgroup.com/print.php?
> > lang=en&page=public&arti
> > > > > > cle=public_20020402010706
> > > > > > There were many excellent posts, I have a Word file if 
you 
> > would
> > > > > > like a copy send me an email with "Please email
> > > > > MMSummary.doc"
> > > > > > and I'll send you a copy.
> > > > > > 
> > > > > > Thank you all for you marvelous participation!
> > > > > > Best regards,
> > > > > > Herman